5 reasons why health care bill would fail, 3 why it may not

WASHINGTON (AP) — There are many reasons why the Senate will probably reject Republicans’ crowning bill razing much of former President Barack Obama’s health care law. The latest bill by McConnell, R-Ky. — and it could change anew — would end penalties Democrat Obama’s health care law slapped on people without insurance, and on larger companies not offering coverage to workers. In an Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research poll this month, 51 percent supported the health care program while just 22 percent backed GOP legislation. Perhaps more ominously for Republicans, the AP-NORC poll found that by a 25-percentage-point margin, most think it’s the federal government’s responsibility to ensure all Americans have coverage. The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office says under McConnell’s plan, 22 million more people would be uninsured by 2026, mostly Medicaid recipients and people buying private policies. For single people, the typical deductible — out-of-pocket expenses before insurance defrays costs — would balloon that year to $13,000, up from $5,000 under Obama’s law. The bill would let insurers charge people approaching retirement age higher prices than they can now, boosting premiums “for most older people,” CBO says. After Ryan labored for months before the House approved its health care bill and earned a Rose Garden celebration, Trump called the measure “mean.” Supporters could say they honored their repeal “Obamacare” pledges, foes could say they protected their states or adhered to conservative principles. On Friday, Vice President Mike Pence urged leaders of conservative, anti-abortion and business groups to pressure senators. Medicaid administrator Seema Verma has tried luring senators unhappy with Medicaid cuts, including Ohio’s Rob Portman and West Virginia’s Shelley Moore Capito, with more flexibility for governors to use Medicaid funds to help pay expenses for beneficiaries shifting to private insurance.

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